Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleZohran Mamdani 27.1%-2.3ptEn tête parmi 49 options
Prévisionnistes
214
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
-1.5 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 minutes
30 nov. 25, 19:39 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.4%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year?
Manifold MarketsWho or what will appear on the cover of TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year issue? [add answers]
Manifold MarketsWill Eliezer Yudkowsky win the Time Magazine person of the year by 2042?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRègles
This question resolves to the TIME 2026 Person of The Year.
- It uses consolidated answers to avoid having to predict who the major party nominees will be, or the exact wording of any abstract/group answers.
- If multiple options do end up being true, then those options will resolve to an even split of 100%.
- In ambiguous cases, I will try to match the resolution of the market to who Wikipedia lists in their TIME Person of The Year article.
Comparaison des sources de prévision
- Également disponible sur Polymarket — TIME Person of the Year 2026 · Zohran Mamdani 30%
- Également disponible sur Futuur — TIME Person of the Year 2026 · Zohran Mamdani 37%
- Également disponible sur Kalshi — Time's Person of the Year for 2026 · Zohran Mamdani 30%
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 135,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 102,7 k €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 325 k €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Zohran Mamdani à 27% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This question resolves to the TIME 2026 Person of The Year.
- Où Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year? est-il également listé ?
- La même question est également listée sur Polymarket, Futuur, Kalshi.