Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Zohran Mamdani 30.7%-0.5ptEn tête parmi 20 options
Prévisionnistes
281
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+3.1 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 minutes
8 déc. 25, 16:45 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
0.5%
0.4%
0.4%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year?
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KalshiRègles
This question resolves to the TIME 2026 Person of the Year.
- It uses consolidated answers to avoid having to predict who the major party nominees will be, or the exact wording of any abstract/group answers.
- If you would like to add a new candidate or consolidated answer to the market, submit it in a comment below.
- If a comment gets enough support, I'll open the market to submissions so that you can add it, and you'll get a bonus.
- Note that all consolidated answers must be mutually exclusive, so no more specific or general versions of existing options.
- The goal is to cleanly divide the probabilistic landscape into non-overlapping categories.