Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 91.4%
Pronosticadores
227
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 13 horas
Desactualizado3 mar 26, 4:02 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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Manifold MarketsReglas
Resolves YES if at least 1000 ground troops are deployed in Iran in 2026.
- Resolves to a consensus of popular reporting.
- If there's an estimate like "about a thousand", that will be adequate, I don't want to litigate which of two independent estimates of 950 or 1050 troops are more accurate; I'll resolve in the spirit of the question.
- I will not bet in this market (after initial bet to a reasonable probability).