Will my resolution of the COVID-19 lab leak market be controversial?
Crime & JusticeOne-OffHealth & Medicine
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
No 60%
Pronosticadores
102
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 1 hora
Retrasado31 mar 23, 12:45 UTC1 ene 00, 5:00 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
By when will the Covid lab leak market resolve?
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PolymarketTyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
PolymarketTrump out as President before 2027?
PolymarketReglas
Here is the market in question:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/IsaacKing/did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory)I've tried to make it clear that I'm only going to resolve it once there's overwhelming evidence in one direction or another, no more serious concerns about relevant evidence being hidden, I'll talk to experts, etc. That said, it still ultimately comes down to my personal opinion, and, very reasonably, some people don't feel fully comfortable trusting that on such a controversial and politically charged topic.
- So, after that market resolves, I'll post a poll about whether Manifold users agree with the decision.
- (Alt accounts are ignored, and moderators count for 5x the votes of others.
- I don't get a vote myself.) If at least 10% of the vote disagrees, this market resolves YES.
- I will be trying to make sure that votes are an accurate representation of that user's beliefs, so as to avoid trolls who vote dishonestly.
Mercados abiertos
Crime & JusticePOLYMARKETTyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
- No+11.5pt65%
- Yes-11.5pt35%
- Volumen total
- 347,6 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 12,4 mil €
POLYMARKETTrump out as President before 2027?
- No94.1%
- Yes5.9%
- Volumen total
- 9,8 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 6,8 mil €
POLYMARKETLindsay Clancy convicted of murder by which date?
- 2027-2.0pt21%
- 2026-0.1pt5%
- Volumen total
- 498,6 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 6,1 mil €
POLYMARKETIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- December 31+1.5pt28%
- October 31-0.5pt12%
- September 30-0.5pt7%
+3 resultados más
POLYMARKETMaduro Prison Time?
- No prison time+1.5pt42.6%
- 60++1.5pt38.6%
- 20–40+1.4pt10.9%
+2 resultados más
POLYMARKETAndrew Tate released from custody by which date?
- December 31-7.5pt13%
- July 31-0.1pt0%
- August 31-0.6pt0%
- Who will be arrested in 2026?
- Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
- Who will be named in Epstein files released in 2026?
- Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
- Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
- James Comey charges dropped by December 31?
- Tom Lee charged by December 31?
- Hasan Piker arrested in 2026?
- Will Yale settle with DOJ over Law School admissions?
- Andrew Tate Extradited to UK by which date?
- Epstein confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will my resolution of the COVID-19 lab leak market be controversial??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 60% a fecha de 9 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will my resolution of the COVID-19 lab leak market be controversial??
- Está previsto que Will my resolution of the COVID-19 lab leak market be controversial? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2100.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will my resolution of the COVID-19 lab leak market be controversial??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Here is the market in question: