Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 77.6%
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204
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
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Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 11 horas
Desactualizado29 oct 23, 4:32 UTC31 ene 27, 23:59 UTC
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Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel before the Israel–Hamas war ends?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the 2023 Israel Hamas war end? (Longer)
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PolymarketIsrael x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by which date?
FutuurIsrael x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by which date?
FutuurReglas
This market will resolve YES if and when the English Wikipedia's page on the 2023 Israel–Hamas war (or the nearest equivalent if that page no longer exists) lists in its infobox "Result: Israeli victory" (or equivalent), and I am satisfied that this is not part of an edit war.
- It will also resolve YES if the result describes the victor as some coalition of which Israel is a part, or describes the outcome in terms of the defeated side being Hamas or some coalition of which Hamas is a part.
- Any other "result" after the war is no longer described by Wikipedia as "ongoing" will cause the market to resolve NO, including hedged statements like "Partial Israeli victory" or "Israeli victory with territorial losses".
- Note specifically that if there is a frozen conflict that causes Wikipedia to update the infobox from "ongoing" to "inconclusive" or similar, this would be a NO resolution.
- Resolution only depends on the first, non-dotpoint statement in the "result" section of the infobox.
- If hedging/concessions follow the intitial statement as dotpoints, or if they appear in the body of the article, this is not relevant to resolution.
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will Israel win the 2023 Israel–Hamas war??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 78% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will Israel win the 2023 Israel–Hamas war??
- Está previsto que Will Israel win the 2023 Israel–Hamas war? se resuelva el 31 de enero de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will Israel win the 2023 Israel–Hamas war??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: This market will resolve YES if and when the English Wikipedia's page on the 2023 Israel–Hamas war (or the nearest equivalent if that page no longer exists) lists in its infobox "Result: Israeli victory" (or equivalent), and I am satisfied that this is not part of an edit war.