Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by which date?
1.5 pts (24h)Política de EE. UU.One-OffGeopolíticaOriente Medio2m
PolymarketComprobar disponibilidadSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPunto medio del libro seleccionado
December 31 · —
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Referencia guardada
December 31 14%Líder entre 8 opciones
December 31 14%Calidad del mercado
57 / 100
Calidad mediaVolumen 24h
294,6 €
Liquidez
10,8 mil €
Liquidez mediaInterés abierto
21,2 mil US$
Compra / Venta
— / —
December 31Spread
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Comentarios
357
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 8 minutos
9 oct 25, 19:17 UTC1 ene 27, 4:59 UTC
El gráfico y los cambios muestran probabilidades históricas guardadas, no el libro seleccionado en directo.
Tendencias
Fila seleccionada: punto medio del libro. Otras filas: referencias guardadas, posiblemente normalizadas; los cambios de 24h usan el historial guardado.
December 31Perdida
January 31Perdida
July 31Perdida
Antes del cierre: 0% ·
June 30Perdida
Antes del cierre: 1% ·
March 31, 2026Perdida
November 30Perdida
October 31Perdida
Condiciones de la plataforma
Fuente: Polymarket
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- Orden mínima (participaciones):
- 5
- Incremento de precio:
- 1 puntos porcentuales
- Comisiones:
- No
Principales tenedores
Cargando principales tenedores
Profundidad de mercado · December 31
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Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
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Manifold MarketsReglas
On October 8, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages.
- A second phase of the deal, yet to be negotiated, is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza.
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel and Hamas by the named outcome, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
- For purposes of this market, a “second phase” ceasefire agreement refers to a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar) that goes beyond the Phase 1 initial truce and includes commitments towards a comprehensive or “full” ceasefire.
Comparación de fuentes de predicción
- También disponible en Futuur — Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...? · December 31 21%
