PolymarketComprobar disponibilidadSin KYC2% de comisiónDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoProbabilidad implícita actual
December 31 23%Líder entre 8 opciones
Calidad del mercado
53 / 100
Calidad mediaVolumen 24h
70,6 €
Liquidez
10,2 mil €
Liquidez mediaSpread
3.0 pt
Spread moderadoComentarios
357
Cambio 7d
+3.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 11 minutos
9 oct 25, 19:17 UTC1 ene 27, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by which date?
FutuurIsrael x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by which date?
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PolymarketReglas
On October 8, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages.
- A second phase of the deal, yet to be negotiated, is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza.
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel and Hamas by the named outcome, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
- For purposes of this market, a “second phase” ceasefire agreement refers to a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar) that goes beyond the Phase 1 initial truce and includes commitments towards a comprehensive or “full” ceasefire.
Comparación de fuentes de predicción
- También disponible en Futuur — Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...? · December 31 31%
