Will Iran get a nuclear weapon before the Islamic Republic falls?
GeopolíticaOne-OffOriente MedioRusia / UcraniaChina
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
No 85.4%
No 85.4%Pronosticadores
33
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 13 horas
Desactualizado1 feb 25, 16:21 UTC1 ene 00, 23:59 UTC
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KalshiReglas
Resolves YES if the Islamic Republic of Iran obtains a nuclear weapon before it collapses, according to reliable media outlets.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- I will not bet on this market.
- Update 2025-02-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Weapon Resolution Clarification:
- Dirty bomb does not count as a nuclear weapon.
- Refer to the linked example for further context: Metaculus page
