If the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran falls by 2030, will Reza Pahlavi lead the new government a year later?
Política de EE. UU.One-OffGeopolíticaOriente Medio4a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actualNo 80.7%
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25
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 12 horas
Desactualizado8 ene 26, 0:14 UTC31 dic 30, 23:59 UTC
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Manifold MarketsReglas
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to hold power by December 31, 2030, AND Reza Pahlavi is the leader of Iran exactly one year after the commonly understood date of the regime's fall.
- The resolution of the linked market (https://manifold.markets/BaryLevy/will-the-government-of-the-islamic-9R2hcIEElO) determines whether the precondition is met.
- Resolves NO if the Islamic Republic falls by 2030 but: (1) anyone other than Pahlavi leads Iran one year post-fall; (2) Pahlavi assumes power but loses it within that one-year window; or (3) Pahlavi assumes power after the one-year deadline has passed.
- Resolves N/A if the Islamic Republic remains in power through 2030.
- Reza Pahlavi is an Iranian politician and dissident, and the eldest son of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the last shah of Iran.