Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
No 75.5%
No 75.5%Pronosticadores
211
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 57 minutos
Retrasado16 dic 24, 2:35 UTC1 ene 30, 21:59 UTC
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When will the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall?
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KalshiReglas
Resolves YES if by January 1st 2030, the revolutionary regime in the Islamic Republic of Iran collapses, by international media consensus.
- Of course, death of Ali Khamenei in itself does not count as a regime change.
- Update 2025-06-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated the essence of the resolution criteria is whether the people in control of Tehran or most of Iran are still Ayatollahs or hold a similar Shiite-muslim religious title.
