Will Chancellor Merz announce a German defense spending increase to 3.0% of GDP by the end of 2026?
EconomíaOne-OffGeopolíticaEuropa2m
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 68.1%
Pronosticadores
7
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 10 horas
Desactualizado9 feb 26, 15:17 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Activos Sensibles al Macro
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will Merz be German chancellor on Jan 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Hawaii visitor spending increase YoY in 2026?
KalshiFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by which date?
PolymarketFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany?
FutuurWill Germany formally exceed NATO's 2% GDP defense spending and deploy troops outside Europe by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWho replaces Merz as Chancellor if he gets replaced before the next German federal election?
Manifold MarketsReglas
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if Chancellor Friedrich Merz makes a public announcement by December 31, 2026 that Germany will increase defense spending to 3.0% of GDP.
- The announcement must be made by Merz himself (or an official statement from the German Chancellor's office) and must explicitly state a commitment to reach 3.0% of GDP in defense spending.
- Resolution sources include official German government statements, NATO announcements, or major international news outlets reporting on such an announcement.
- Germany's record €108.2 billion 2026 defense budget marks a historic shift, supporting a long-term Bundeswehr buildup and redefining Germany's role in European security and NATO.
- Germany only just met NATO's 2% GDP target in 2024, so this jump to ~2.8% by 2026 is unprecedented.