Pronóstico comunitario actual
Other 22.6%+10.1ptLíder entre 8 opciones
Pronosticadores
4
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
+10.1 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 6 minutos
14 sept 26, 16:58 UTC21 oct 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Who will be elected Chancellor after the next German federal election?
Manifold MarketsWhich parties will gain seats in the next German federal election?
Manifold MarketsFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
PolymarketWho will become Chancellor of Germany following the next federal election?
KalshiWill the AfD participate in a German federal or state government by the year 2030?
Manifold MarketsNext German federal election winner?
KalshiReglas
Resolves to the first person who takes the oath as Federal Chancellor after Merz, if that happens before the next Bundestag election.
- Resolves N/A if Merz remains until then.
Mercados abiertos
PoliticsPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+12.0pt81.2%
- Yes-12.0pt18.8%
- Volumen total
- 15,1 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 1 M €
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+1.3pt19%
- Jon Ossoff+0.8pt17%
- Gavin Newsom+0.5pt13%
+48 resultados más
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- D-House, D-Senate+3.0pt50%
- D-House, R-Senate-2.0pt34%
- R-House, R-Senate-3.0pt14%
+1 resultados más
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt15%
- Gavin Newsom13%
+45 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 188,6 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 675,8 mil €
KALSHILos Angeles Mayor winner?
- Karen Bass-2.0pt63%
- Nithya Raman+3.0pt37%
- Volumen total
- 27,6 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 642,6 mil €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Flávio Bolsonaro+1.5pt52.5%
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-2.0pt45.5%
- Renan Santos+0.1pt2%
+16 resultados más
- Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Will the Clarity Act become law?
- Next French Presidential Election
- 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
- Which party will win the U.S. Senate?
- Presidential Election Winner 2028
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Texas Senate winner?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Who replaces Merz as Chancellor before the next German federal election??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Other al 23% a fecha de 15 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Who replaces Merz as Chancellor before the next German federal election??
- Está previsto que Who replaces Merz as Chancellor before the next German federal election? se resuelva el 21 de octubre de 2029.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Who replaces Merz as Chancellor before the next German federal election??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolves to the first person who takes the oath as Federal Chancellor after Merz, if that happens before the next Bundestag election.