NATO country shoots down Israeli aircraft, missile, or drone before 2031?
GeopolíticaOne-OffPolíticaOriente MedioEuropa4a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosPronóstico comunitario actualNo 56.1%
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Actualizado hace 10 horas
Desactualizado21 sept 25, 15:39 UTC31 dic 30, 23:59 UTC
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Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that a NATO country has shot down an Israeli aircraft, missile or drone before January 1st 2031.
- Definitions & scope
- “NATO country” = the armed forces of any NATO member state, regardless of whether the action was under national or NATO command.
- “Israeli” = operated or under the control of Israel at the time (crewed aircraft, UAVs, ballistic/cruise missiles).
- Israeli-made exports used by others do not qualify.
- “Shot down” = the object was destroyed or made combat-ineffective in flight by kinetic weapons (e.g., SAM, AAM, gun) or directed energy causing a crash/destruction.