Will Russia invade any NATO country before 31 December 2026?
GeopolíticaOne-OffRussia / UkraineEurope3m
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
No 88.5%
Pronosticadores
55
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 12 minutos
5 feb 24, 11:43 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will Russia invade a NATO country before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia invade another country in 2026?
PolymarketX banned in any European country by December 31?
PolymarketEU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by which date?
Polymarket[Metaculus] Will combat troops from any NATO country be openly present in Ukraine before 2027 in significant numbers?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia invade a new country by the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsReglas
Will Russia invade any NATO member country before 31 December 2026?
- • This question asks participants to predict whether there will be any military action by Russia that constitutes an invasion of a NATO member country’s sovereign territory before the end of 31 December 2026.
- • For the purposes of this market, an “invasion” is defined as the unauthorized entry of Russian military forces into the sovereign territory of a NATO member country that is publicly acknowledged by NATO as an act of aggression.
- • Verification of an invasion can be based on official statements from NATO, the government of the member country involved, or the Russian government.
- • Incidents that are ambiguous or not officially recognized as an invasion by NATO or the member country’s government will not count towards the resolution of this market.
- • This market will resolve to “Yes” if any such invasion occurs before the specified date, and “No” otherwise.