Will Russia invade a NATO country by which date?
1.0 pts (24h)One-OffGeopolíticaRussia / UkraineEurope3m
PolymarketComprobar disponibilidadSin KYC2% de comisiónDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoProbabilidad implícita actual
December 31, 6%-1.0ptLíder entre 4 opciones
Calidad del mercado
69 / 100
Calidad mediaVolumen 24h
959,1 €
Liquidez
57,8 mil €
Alta liquidezSpread
1.0 pt
Spread estrechoComentarios
64
Cambio 7d
-0.5 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 19 minutos
28 may 25, 22:16 UTC1 ene 27, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
Perdida
Perdida
Antes del cierre: 0% ·
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PolymarketReglas
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country between May 28 and the named outcome, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries.
- Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022).
- The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
