Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 95%
Pronosticadores
19
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 8 horas
Desactualizado5 sept 25, 19:24 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
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KalshiReglas
The market resolves YES if Hezbollah's arsenal is substantially eliminated by the end of 2026.
- By "substantially eliminated" I mean that over 90% of Hezbollah's weapons have been either destroyed, confiscated, or voluntary relinquished to the Lebanese government by the close date, and the group no longer poses a military threat to the State of Lebanon or credibly resist the Lebanese armed forces.
- I will make this determination by studying mainstream news sources (e.g., NYT, CNN) for information regarding Hezbollah's weapons.
- 1) If there is ongoing armed conflict between Hezbollah and the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) on the close date, the market will resolve NO, unless that armed conflict is at the "mopping up" phase by the LAF.
- 2) If some weapons have been relinquished but there is a dispute as to whether a substantial amount remains hidden in Hezbollah's arsenal, I will base my analysis on whether Hezbollah still appears to act as if it is an organization with a substantial military wing.
- For example, if there is still some terroritory that the LAF declines to enter due to it being a Hezbollah stronghold, that would strongly indicate that Hezbollah still has some weaponry and likely be considered a NO.
Mercados abiertos
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Hezbollah disarms by EOY 2026??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 95% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Hezbollah disarms by EOY 2026??
- Está previsto que Hezbollah disarms by EOY 2026? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Hezbollah disarms by EOY 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: The market resolves YES if Hezbollah's arsenal is substantially eliminated by the end of 2026.