Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 67%
Pronosticadores
46
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 9 horas
Desactualizado8 may 24, 20:22 UTC1 ene 30, 21:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by which date?
PolymarketWill the US and Iran be at war on January 1st, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the US and Iran be at war on January 1st, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?
Manifold MarketsNaim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by which date?
PolymarketWill Hezbollah disarm by which date?
PolymarketReglas
10,000 casualties or more within a month constitutes a major war.
- To make it more clear, a month is a calendar month, not a 30 day period.
Mercados abiertos
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 22,3 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 581,3 mil €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 resultados más
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-17.5pt51%
+2 resultados más
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 resultados más
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 resultados más
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Volumen total
- 55,9 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 96,8 mil €
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will Israel and Hezbollah have a major war before January 1st, 2030??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 67% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will Israel and Hezbollah have a major war before January 1st, 2030??
- Está previsto que Will Israel and Hezbollah have a major war before January 1st, 2030? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2030.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will Israel and Hezbollah have a major war before January 1st, 2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: 10,000 casualties or more within a month constitutes a major war.