Will the US and Iran be at war on January 1st, 2027?
PolíticaOne-OffUS PoliticsGeopolíticaMiddle East3mManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 53%
Pronosticadores
12
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 16 horas
Desactualizado1 ago 26, 16:23 UTC1 ene 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will the US and Iran be at war on January 1st, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the US-Iran war end before the 2026 midterm elections?
Manifold MarketsWill Europe find a peaceful agreement with Iran to pass the Strait of Hormuz in 2026 while the US/Iran war continues?
Manifold MarketsUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
PolymarketNext round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
PolymarketWhat will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
PolymarketReglas
Resolution criteria
- The US and Iran will be considered at war if military hostilities between the two nations are actively occurring on January 1st, 2027.
- This includes direct combat operations, sustained military strikes, or active armed conflict.
- Iran's retaliatory ballistic missile attacks on US military bases and Israel following the February 28, 2026 US and Israeli military strikes on Iran constitute evidence of active warfare.
- The market resolves YES if military operations continue through January 1st, 2027.
- The market resolves NO if a ceasefire, peace agreement, or cessation of hostilities has been established before that date, or if no active military conflict exists on that date.
Mercados abiertos
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 605,7 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 697,7 mil €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 resultados más
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 603,2 M €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 183,4 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 471,3 mil €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 resultados más
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will the US and Iran be at war on January 1st, 2027??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 53% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will the US and Iran be at war on January 1st, 2027??
- Está previsto que Will the US and Iran be at war on January 1st, 2027? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will the US and Iran be at war on January 1st, 2027??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolution criteria