Conditional on AI causing human extinction, which failure mode will be primarily responsible?
GeopolíticaOne-OffHealth & MedicineSpaceWeatherManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualIndifferent (to humans) AI 37.6%Líder entre 4 opciones
Pronosticadores
8
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 9 horas
Desactualizado22 ago 26, 20:36 UTC31 dic 50, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Conditional on AI alignment being solved, will governments or other entities be capable of enforcing use of aligned AIs?
Manifold MarketsIf AI wipes out humanity, which organization(s) will be primarily responsible for the development of this AI?
Manifold MarketsConditional on at least one AI system causing more than 100 deaths in the next 12 months, what's the type of attack?
Manifold MarketsNew pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketNew pandemic before 2028?
PolymarketMeasles cases in U.S. in 2026?
PolymarketReglas
Resolution criteria
- This is a conditional market.
- If human extinction does not occur, or if it is caused by a factor entirely unrelated to AI (such as a standard asteroid impact, a naturally occurring pandemic, or a nuclear war without significant AI involvement), this market will resolve to N/A. If AI is indeed the primary driver of human extinction, this market will resolve to the single option that represents the primary failure mode responsible, based on historical consensus, surviving records, or the best available post-event analysis:
- the named outcome: The AI system actively sought to destroy or harm humanity due to possessing hostile, adversarial, or malevolent goals (e.g., viewing humanity as an active threat to its existence or objectives that must be eliminated).
- Indifferent / misaligned AI: The AI had no active malice or hostility toward humanity, but its goals were misaligned with human survival.