Conditinal on Crimea being taken by Ukranian army, will Russia avoid using nuclear weapons?
GeopolíticaOne-OffRusia / Ucrania2m
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 25 oct 2026, 20:50 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actual
Sí 86.4%
Sí 86.4%Pronosticadores
51
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 1 hora
Retrasado21 dic 22, 23:21 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
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Manifold MarketsU.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?
PolymarketRussia to control Crimea through the end of 2026?
FutuurReglas
This market resolves:
- YES - if Ukrainian army has de-facto control over at least 50% of Crimea territory, and Russia had NOT used tactical nor strategic nuclear weapons against Ukraine before that day, and not uses them for at least 4 weeks after that day.
- NO - if Ukrainian army has de-facto control over at least 50% of Crimea territory, and Russia had used tactical or strategic nuclear weapons against Ukraine before that day or within 4 weeks after that day.
- N/A - If the war ends before Crimea is liberated by Ukranian forces, including the case where Crimea is returned to Ukraine as part of a peace deal.
- The intention to estimate whether Russia is likely to use nukes to prevent loosing Crimea.
- Close date updated to 2024-01-01 3:59 am