Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 25 oct 2026, 20:15 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actualNo 93.8%
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18
Tipo de pregunta
binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 4 horas
Desactualizado7 dic 25, 1:12 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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The fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution.
- Any detonation of a nuclear weapon, whether test or non-test, deliberate or inadvertent or accidental, would count towards question resolution.
- Detonation here means nuclear explosion.
- If a conventional explosion occurs but no nuclear explosion (for example, a dirty bomb that distributes radioactive material with a conventional explosion), that does not count.
- If a nuclear weapon were launched but the nuclear weapon did not detonate, that would not count as detonation.
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