Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 25 oct 2026, 12:37 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actualNothing Ever Happens (Nothing Happens) 57%Líder entre 7 opciones
Pronosticadores
49
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 14 horas
Desactualizado18 nov 25, 14:28 UTC1 ene 30, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
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I'll search for current information on these potential end-times signals to provide accurate context for traders.#### Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if any of the following occurs by the end of 2029:
- Climate Displacement: An estimated 30 million people are displaced annually due to climate-related disasters, but the 500 million threshold requires verification through EITHER UN UNHCR reports or World Bank climate migration assessments.
- Resolution via UNHCR Displacement Data or World Bank Climate Migration Reports.
- US Default: The Bipartisan Policy Center projected the "X-date" will "most likely occur between August 15 and October 3" if Congress fails to raise the debt ceiling.
- Resolution via US Treasury Department official announcement of default or missed payment.
