Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 76.2%
Pronosticadores
21
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 3 horas
Desactualizado18 jun 25, 21:25 UTC31 dic 28, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
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PolymarketReglas
This market evaluates the likelihood of a nuclear weapon (dirty bomb, tactical nuke, war-heard, etc.) being used in any conflict worldwide before January 1 2029.
- With rising global tensions and the modernization of nuclear arsenals by several countries, the risk of nuclear weapon use is a pressing concern.
- Resolution will be based on reports from international news agencies and official government statements.
Mercados abiertos
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 22,2 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 470,8 mil €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 resultados más
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 resultados más
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volumen total
- 35,3 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 100,1 mil €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 resultados más
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
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- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de A nuclear weapon is used in any conflict before January 1, 2029?
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 76% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve A nuclear weapon is used in any conflict before January 1, 2029?
- Está previsto que A nuclear weapon is used in any conflict before January 1, 2029 se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2028.
- ¿Cómo se liquida A nuclear weapon is used in any conflict before January 1, 2029?
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: This market evaluates the likelihood of a nuclear weapon (dirty bomb, tactical nuke, war-heard, etc.) being used in any conflict worldwide before January 1 2029.