¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de US and Mexico engage in armed conflict before January 20, 2029?

Manifold Markets cotiza No al 87.5% a fecha de 26 de octubre de 2026.

US and Mexico engage in armed conflict before January 20, 2029

Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptable

Aviso de calidad de datosDatos obsoletos

Datos del 26 oct 2026, 7:45 UTC · política pm-quality-4

Pronóstico comunitario actual

No 87.5%

Pronosticadores

Tipo de pregunta

binary

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Datos de mercado

Actualizado ayer

Desactualizado

4 ene 25, 19:50 UTC21 ene 29, 0:00 UTC

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Reglas

This market resolves YES if there is a direct military engagement between the armed forces of the United States and Mexico before January 20, 2029.

Resolution criteria:
Must involve official government forces (ex. uniformed military, national guard, or police acting in an official capacity, not private militias or individuals)
Must include exchange of fire or direct combat operations
Must result in the creation of a wikipedia page, with a table indicating at least 10 total casualties or losses and with the USA and Mexico as belligerents on opposing sides, and that page must remain up for at least a week.
(ex. this page)