Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 97.7%
Pronosticadores
56
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 7 horas
Desactualizado10 mar 26, 0:23 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Nuclear weapon used offensively before 2100?
Manifold MarketsWill a nuke be used offensively before the end of the year ?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran test fire a nuclear weapon before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsNew nuclear weapon tests in 2026?
FutuurWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
PolymarketReglas
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if a nuclear weapon is detonated offensively against a target during 2026. "Offensive use" means deliberate detonation by a state or non-state actor as a weapon in an armed conflict or attack, excluding accidental detonation, testing, or defensive/retaliatory use in response to a prior nuclear attack.
- Resolution will be determined by credible reporting from major international news sources (Reuters, AP, BBC, etc.) confirming a nuclear detonation with offensive intent.
- The market creator will resolve based on available evidence at year-end.
- Military operations in 2025 occurred in three theaters under the shadow of nuclear weapons, with the Russia-Ukraine war featuring innovative military tactics and Russian nuclear threats.
- Russia revised its nuclear doctrine to signal a lower threshold for nuclear weapons use.
Mercados abiertos
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 22,2 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 470,8 mil €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 resultados más
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 resultados más
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volumen total
- 35,3 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 100,1 mil €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 resultados más
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Nuclear weapon used offensively in 2026?
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 98% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Nuclear weapon used offensively in 2026?
- Está previsto que Nuclear weapon used offensively in 2026 se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Nuclear weapon used offensively in 2026?
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolution criteria