FutuurComprobar disponibilidadDatos de resolución verificadosAviso de calidad de datosSin cotizaciones en vivo
Datos del 24 oct 2026, 12:14 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Probabilidad implícita actual
December 31 22%
December 31 22%Calidad del mercado
26 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
—
Liquidez
1,6 mil €
Baja liquidezTraders
3
Comentarios
0
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 1 minuto
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will Hamas actually disarm in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Hezbollah disarm by which date?
PolymarketWhen will the 2023 Israel Hamas war end? (Longer)
Manifold MarketsIsrael x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by which date?
PolymarketWill Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel before the Israel–Hamas war ends?
Manifold MarketsReglas
This set of markets predicts whether Hamas will officially announce that it will disarm in the Gaza Strip.
- Each market below covers one possible deadline; any number of these markets may resolve "Yes" (an announcement made before an earlier deadline also counts toward all later deadlines).
- A market resolves "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip on or before the market's deadline.
- For the purposes of this event, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.
- Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons, or agreeing to disarm in stages or in a certain region) qualify as long as they are part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
- Only official announcements qualify — for example, by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas.
Comparación de fuentes de predicción
- También disponible en Polymarket — Will Hamas agree to disarm by...? · December 31, 9%
- También disponible en Manifold Markets — Will Hamas agree to disarm by...? · End of 2026 10%
