Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 93.6%
Pronosticadores
27
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 3 horas
Desactualizado3 ene 26, 3:11 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
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Will Hamas agree to disarm by which date?
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FutuurReglas
Resolution Criteria
- The Trump peace plan calls for Hamas and other Palestinian armed groups to surrender their weapons to an international peacekeeping force, with the second phase explicitly stipulating that Hamas and other armed terrorist organizations in the Gaza Strip will be required to disarm and the Strip will become a demilitarized zone.
- This market resolves YES if, by December 31, 2026, credible reporting confirms that Hamas has verifiably surrendered a substantial majority of its weapons arsenal (including heavy weapons, rockets, and small arms) to an international force or third party, with independent verification of the disarmament.
- This includes destruction of weapons caches and tunnel infrastructure used for weapons storage or manufacturing.
- This market resolves NO if Hamas retains operational control of significant weapons stockpiles, continues active weapons manufacturing, or refuses to participate in verified disarmament by year-end 2026.
- A ceasefire between Israel and Hamas went into effect on October 10, 2025.
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will Hamas actually disarm in 2026??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 94% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will Hamas actually disarm in 2026??
- Está previsto que Will Hamas actually disarm in 2026? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will Hamas actually disarm in 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolution Criteria