PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
September 30 13%+3.0ptLeader of 4 outcomes
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$225.3
Liquidity
$2.5K
Low liquiditySpread
3.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
8
7d Change
-19.0 pts
Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Apr 13, 26, 10:49 PM UTCOct 1, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
0%
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection Tsentralna volytsia x Peremohy volytsia at 48.492703° N, 37.607318° E in Dovha Balka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
- The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.
- If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
- For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.
- If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.
- Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
Open markets
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by which date??
- Polymarket prices September 30 at 13% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by which date? resolve?
- Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by which date? is scheduled to resolve on October 1, 2026.
- How is Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by which date? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection Tsentralna volytsia x Peremohy volytsia at 48.492703° N, 37.607318° E in Dovha Balka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.