Current implied probability
Google 36.5%Leader of 20 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
71 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$769.4
Liquidity
$28.3K
High liquiditySpread
1.2 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
7d Change
+28.9 pts
Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Jul 25, 26, 12:20 AM UTCOct 1, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Second-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?
PolymarketThird-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of September?
PolymarketThird-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?
PolymarketWhich AI will be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?
KalshiWill the U.S. publish the text of its Saudi nuclear agreement by December 31?
Manifold MarketsWhich AI lab's model will be the first to solve a Millennium Problem?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
- Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
- AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time.
- If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view.
- If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard.
- If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”).