Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastOpenAI 69%+33.3ptLeader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
16
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+49.0 pts
Market data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Sep 5, 26, 9:51 PM UTCDec 31, 34, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill an AI solve a Millennium problem by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich AI lab will be the first to solve a millennium prize problem?
Manifold MarketsThird-best AI Lab end of September?
PolymarketThird-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?
PolymarketThird-best AI Lab end of October?
PolymarketRules
Resolves to the company whose AI model is credited with doing the majority of the work in the first solution to any of the six unsolved Millennium Prize Problems.
- Resolves on Clay Institute announcement or earlier on broad expert consensus that the proof is correct.
- Resolves N/A if no AI-led solution by end of 2034.
- If a claimed solution is under serious review at close, the market will be extended until it's confirmed or rejected.
Open markets
AI
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+60.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-max+1.0pt7%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $154.3K
- 24h Vol
- $116.6K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.8pt60.8%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt25.5%
- Grok-3.4pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.5M
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+22.0pt62.2%
- 2027+11.0pt28.6%
- 2026+4.5pt9.2%
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $374.6K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-1.0pt66%
- 1490+-3.0pt51%
- 1500+-1.0pt30%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which AI lab's model will be the first to solve a Millennium Problem??
- Manifold Markets prices OpenAI at 69% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Which AI lab's model will be the first to solve a Millennium Problem? resolve?
- Which AI lab's model will be the first to solve a Millennium Problem? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2034.
- How is Which AI lab's model will be the first to solve a Millennium Problem? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves to the company whose AI model is credited with doing the majority of the work in the first solution to any of the six unsolved Millennium Prize Problems.