PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
November 30 86%+7.0ptLeader of 3 outcomes
Market quality
67 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$2.9K
Liquidity
$18.3K
Medium liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Sep 4, 26, 2:36 PM UTCNov 30, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3).
- Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
- A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups.
Open markets
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,250 or above99%
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- $76,500 or above98%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $636.3K
- 24h Vol
- $630.2K
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- 160-179+18.0pt37.1%
- 180-199+10.0pt36.2%
- 200-219-10.0pt12.4%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,000 or above99%
- $68,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.4M
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- 40-64+39.3pt96%
- 65-89-29.7pt4%
- <40-24.4pt0%
+7 more outcomes
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- Anthropic89.9%
- OpenAI-1.5pt8.1%
- Google-0.1pt2%
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Meta's "Watermelon" model released by which date??
- Polymarket prices November 30 at 86% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Meta's "Watermelon" model released by which date? resolve?
- Meta's "Watermelon" model released by which date? is scheduled to resolve on November 30, 2026.
- How is Meta's "Watermelon" model released by which date? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3).