PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: 13-16m
Resolved: Sep 28, 2026, 9:45 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
13-16m
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
50%
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 29, 2026, 7:45 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Probability Timeline
<13m0%
16-19m0%
13-16m36%
13-16mWon
<13mLost
16-19mLost
19-22mLost
22-25mLost
25m+Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsWhich movies will have between $50M and $100M in the 2026 US opening weekend (FSS)?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve according to how much "Forgotten Island" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend.
- The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (September 25 - 27) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
- If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
- Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
- If there is no final data available by October 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
