PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 86%
Market quality
68 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$3.4K
Liquidity
$1.8K
Low liquidityBid / Ask
14.0% / 15.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Sep 14, 26, 10:46 PM UTCOct 1, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Sam Altman signs the Pacing the Frontier statement by September 30?
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PolymarketElon Musk endorses a Democratic candidate for primary elections in 2026?
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Manifold MarketsWill any GOP member of the US Congress lose their 2026 election to a candidate endorsed by Elon Musk?
Manifold MarketsRules
In July 2026, employees of frontier AI companies published the "Pacing the Frontier" statement at pacingthefrontier.com, calling on the US government to support an international effort to develop tools to pace the frontier of automated AI development.
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is listed as a signatory of the statement at pacingthefrontier.com, or publicly confirms through official channels that he has signed it, by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying listing must identify Elon Musk by name together with his role at SpaceXAI, or otherwise make clear that the signatory is the CEO of SpaceXAI.
- Once Elon Musk is listed or confirms signing, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether his name is later removed or the statement is later amended.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be the signatory list at pacingthefrontier.com; however, official statements from Elon Musk or SpaceXAI and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
