PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 96%
Market quality
48 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$2.7K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
1.4% / 7.3%
Spread
5.9 pt
Wide spreadComments
0
7d Change
+0.1 pts
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Aug 20, 26, 12:04 AM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dario Amodei is not the Chief Executive Officer of Anthropic at the moment Anthropic shares begin trading on their first trading day.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- If Anthropic has not completed an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on whether Dario Amodei is the Chief Executive Officer of Anthropic at that date and time.
- Only Dario Amodei's status at that moment will be considered.
- A resignation or removal followed by a return to the position before that moment will not affect resolution, and an announced resignation or removal that has not yet taken effect will not be considered.
- Dario Amodei will be considered Chief Executive Officer only if he holds the Chief Executive Officer title, including as co-Chief Executive Officer.
Open markets
Corporate ActionsPOLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,-0.5pt86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.7M
- 24h Vol
- $66.1K
KALSHIBoeing commercial airplane deliveries in 2026
- Above 56095%
- Above 580-1.0pt90%
- Above 60086%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213K
- 24h Vol
- $45.2K
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+2.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 2027+4.0pt54%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+1.6pt60.2%
- SpaceX-4.5pt37.8%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2%
+9 more outcomes
POLYMARKETOpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- 1.5T++12.3pt77.7%
- 1.25T–1.5T-4.0pt7.8%
- 1T–1.25T-1.4pt5.8%
+4 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+6.0pt98%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+3.0pt98%
- Before Jan 1, 202795%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.6M
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which companies will be acquired before 2027?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Israel Election: Zionist Home & Yashar Run on Same List?
- Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets)
- Oura IPO Closing Market Cap
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Dario Amodei out as Anthropic CEO before IPO??
- Polymarket prices No at 96% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Dario Amodei out as Anthropic CEO before IPO? resolve?
- Dario Amodei out as Anthropic CEO before IPO? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027.
- How is Dario Amodei out as Anthropic CEO before IPO? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dario Amodei is not the Chief Executive Officer of Anthropic at the moment Anthropic shares begin trading on their first trading day.