3rd largest private company end of October?
12.5 pts (24h)Corporate ActionsOne-OffAIBusiness & Corporate28d
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
ByteDance 80.2%+12.5ptLeader of 10 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
ByteDance 80.2%+12.5ptMarket quality
57 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$1.9K
Liquidity
$16K
Medium liquiditySpread
4.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Oct 1, 26, 2:55 PM UTCNov 1, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to the listed company with the third largest private market valuation on the last trading day of October 2026.
- NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
- If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the specified date, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on the third business day following the specified date.
- If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.
- If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
- If a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve based on its final NPM valuation published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, as this market is based on private market valuations only.
