Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 10:52 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 88.7%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated yesterday
StaleJan 27, 26, 6:11 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?
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PolymarketRules
Context: Zhang Youxia was a highly ranked Chinese general in the People's Liberation Army who recently disappeared from the public eye due to a corruption investigation.
- Resolves YES if he is confirmed to be alive and not in prison at any time before 2027.
- Resolves NO if he remains in prison or "disappeared" throughout all of 2026.
- Resolves NO if he is dead.
- Resolves NO if no new information about his whereabouts is revealed.
