Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 88%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleJan 27, 26, 6:11 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Context: Zhang Youxia was a highly ranked Chinese general in the People's Liberation Army who recently disappeared from the public eye due to a corruption investigation.
- Resolves YES if he is confirmed to be alive and not in prison at any time before 2027.
- Resolves NO if he remains in prison or "disappeared" throughout all of 2026.
- Resolves NO if he is dead.
- Resolves NO if no new information about his whereabouts is revealed.
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Zhang Youxia re-appear in public, alive, by EOY 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 88% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Will Zhang Youxia re-appear in public, alive, by EOY 2026? resolve?
- Will Zhang Youxia re-appear in public, alive, by EOY 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will Zhang Youxia re-appear in public, alive, by EOY 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Context: Zhang Youxia was a highly ranked Chinese general in the People's Liberation Army who recently disappeared from the public eye due to a corruption investigation.