What are the current odds for Will xAI be the first to release AGI to the public??

Manifold Markets prices No at 92.6% as of October 27, 2026.

Will xAI be the first to release AGI to the public?

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Current community forecast

No 92.6%

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Play-money forecasting platform

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Forecast

Market data

Updated 1 hour ago

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Dec 19, 23, 5:02 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 11:59 PM UTC

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Rules

xAI is an AI company started by Elon Musk with the goal of creating AI that aids humanity in understanding the universe.

If and only if xAI releases a publicly accessible artificial general intelligence, defined as a machine that exceeds the average human in all cognitive tasks, before anyone else does this question resolve true.