Will we have a scenario like "2030: Takeover" as defined in AI 2027 before the end of Q1, 2030?
One-OffAI3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 80.9%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJul 6, 26, 6:48 PM UTCMar 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will an AI make a new breakthrough on the hardest math problems, as defined by Epoch AI, by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketBest AI in Sep 2026?
KalshiWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketRules
Per the "2030: Takeover" scenario in the "Race" ending of AI2027: Robot economy taking over the majority of the world's land area, designated zones for humans, ASI tiling the world with computronium. https://ai-2027.com/race#:~:text=2030:-,Takeover,-By%20early%202030
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.0pt56.5%
- 2027+3.5pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Total Vol
- $261.2K
- 24h Vol
- $186.6K
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $401K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.4pt62.4%
- ChatGPT-1.2pt23.8%
- Grok-2.6pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-8.0pt63%
- 1490+-8.5pt54%
- 1500+-0.5pt28%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will we have a scenario like "2030: Takeover" as defined in AI 2027 before the end of Q1, 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 81% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will we have a scenario like "2030: Takeover" as defined in AI 2027 before the end of Q1, 2030? resolve?
- Will we have a scenario like "2030: Takeover" as defined in AI 2027 before the end of Q1, 2030? is scheduled to resolve on March 31, 2030.
- How is Will we have a scenario like "2030: Takeover" as defined in AI 2027 before the end of Q1, 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Per the "2030: Takeover" scenario in the "Race" ending of AI2027: Robot economy taking over the majority of the world's land area, designated zones for humans, ASI tiling the world with computronium. https://ai-2027.com/race#:~:text=2030:-,Takeover,-By%20early%202030