Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 23, 2026, 2:06 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 82.9%
Forecasters
24
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleNov 30, 23, 11:42 PM UTCDec 15, 27, 10:59 PM UTC
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KalshiRules
Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being.
- Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can.
- It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.
- Resolves as true if such a system is created before September 15th 2027
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