Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 89.9%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleNov 30, 23, 11:26 PM UTCNov 1, 27, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will we get AGI before August 15th 2027?
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Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWill Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRules
Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being.
- Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can.
- It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.
- Resolves as true if such a system is created and publicly announced before August 1st 2027
- Here are markets with the same criteria:
- @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-july-2027
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-6.0pt63.4%
- 2027-12.5pt29.7%
- 2026-2.5pt6.9%
- Total Vol
- $262.9K
- 24h Vol
- $176.7K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+2.0pt89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+0.5pt85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-2.3pt57.7%
- ChatGPT+1.4pt26.9%
- Grok-2.4pt5.8%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+6.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+7.0pt9%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt79.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt11.1%
- Gemini2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $405.1K
- 24h Vol
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
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- Anthropic market share this week
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will we get AGI before August 1st 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 90% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will we get AGI before August 1st 2027? resolve?
- Will we get AGI before August 1st 2027? is scheduled to resolve on November 1, 2027.
- How is Will we get AGI before August 1st 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being.