Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 89.6%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 34 minutes ago
Nov 30, 23, 11:26 PM UTCNov 1, 27, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will we get AGI before August 15th 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be true of the 1Y return of a small cap ETF (VB) vs. an SP500 ETF (VOO) on August 1st, 2027?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
PolymarketAI beats Minecraft (RSG) in under 10 minutes before 2027?
Manifold MarketsRules
Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being.
- Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can.
- It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.
- Resolves as true if such a system is created and publicly announced before August 1st 2027
- Here are markets with the same criteria:
- @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-july-2027