Current community forecast
No 94.4%
Forecasters
29
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingDec 26, 23, 2:37 PM UTCMar 1, 30, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will there be a crewed mission to Saturn before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2050?
Manifold MarketsSpaceX to launch an uncrewed mission to Mars by the end of 2026?
FutuurSpaceX to launch a manned mission to Mars by the end of 2028?
FutuurWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
PolymarketRules
Resolves to YES if a spacecraft completes a flyby of Mars, or achieves orbital insertion, with at least one live human on board before January 1st, 2030.
- For the purpose of this market, a flyby of Mars must occur within a distance of no more than 1 million kilometers from the planet.
- Questions with the same criteria:
- @/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-m-3a9ca9fc5ea2
- @/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-m-76d02d43aa2c (this question)
- @/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-m-3fcd58236f90
Open markets
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-1.8pt9%
- Google2%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.7M
- 24h Vol
- $121.9K
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Total Vol
- $53.1K
- 24h Vol
- $53.1K
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt59.4%
- SpaceX-4.0pt38.5%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-16.0pt19%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 2027-0.5pt67%
- June 30, 2027-0.5pt53%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 94% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2030? resolve?
- Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2030? is scheduled to resolve on March 1, 2030.
- How is Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves to YES if a spacecraft completes a flyby of Mars, or achieves orbital insertion, with at least one live human on board before January 1st, 2030.