What are the current odds for Will the World Bank lose it's AAA credit rating (2030)?

Manifold Markets prices No at 61.7% as of October 25, 2026.

Will the World Bank lose it's AAA credit rating (2030)

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Data quality warningSource data degraded

Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4

Current community forecast

No 61.7%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 43 minutes ago

Apr 4, 25, 12:41 AM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves to YES if any of the major credit rating agencies (S&P Global, Moody's, or Fitch) downgrades the World Bank's International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) from its current AAA credit rating to a lower rating before the market close date.
Otherwise, it resolves to NO.