Will the relative earnings of college graduates decrease by 2030?
One-OffMacro & EconomyBusiness & Corporate3y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 60.8%
Forecasters
39
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleFeb 8, 23, 5:29 AM UTCJan 1, 30, 6:01 AM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
Relative earnings defined as the ratio of earnings between people with a bachelors degree vs high school graduates with no college. 1.768 at the time of posting based on Q4 2022 data.
- myf.red/g/kebh
- Employed full time: Median usual weekly nominal earnings (second quartile): Wage and salary workers: Bachelor's degree and higher: 25 years and over, Dollars, Quarterly, Not Seasonally Adjusted.
- Employed full time: Median usual weekly nominal earnings (second quartile): Wage and salary workers: High School graduates, no college: 25 years and over, Dollars, Quarterly, Not Seasonally Adjusted
- Clarification 5/23/26 9:18 AM EDT:
- My intent is not to resolve yes on a single noisy quarterly dip.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the relative earnings of college graduates decrease by 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 61% as of September 15, 2026.
- When does Will the relative earnings of college graduates decrease by 2030? resolve?
- Will the relative earnings of college graduates decrease by 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.
- How is Will the relative earnings of college graduates decrease by 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Relative earnings defined as the ratio of earnings between people with a bachelors degree vs high school graduates with no college. 1.768 at the time of posting based on Q4 2022 data.