Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 78.8%
Forecasters
19
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJan 1, 26, 3:59 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the S&P 500 decrease by over 10% in any quarter of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the S&P 500 decrease by over 20% in one day in the period from 2026 to 2032?
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Manifold MarketsHow high will the Nikkei 225 get in 2026?
KalshiWill the S&P finish positive this year?
KalshiHow high will the S&P get this year?
KalshiRules
Resolution Criteria: The market will be based on closing prices only, comparing the close to close price movement from one day to the next.
- Intraday Prices: Any price movements within the trading day will not be considered.
- Weekend closes count: The market will consider close-to-close price movements from Friday to Monday as a single day-to-day comparison for the purposes of determining if there was a >5% decrease.
Open markets
Equities
POLYMARKETLargest Company end of December 2026?
- NVIDIA+1.0pt77.7%
- Apple+0.6pt13.6%
- Alphabet6.8%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $6.9M
- 24h Vol
- $122.3K
KALSHINasdaq-100 price on Sep 8, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- 27,510 or above99%
- 28,550 or above98%
- 29,130 or above98%
+97 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $119.2K
- 24h Vol
- $119.2K
KALSHIS&P price on Sep 8, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- 7,650 or above99%
- 7,660 or above99%
- 7,600 or above99%
+67 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $55K
- 24h Vol
- $54.8K
KALSHIS&P close price end of 2026?
- 7,800 to 7,999.9917.1%
- 8,000 to 8,199.9915.2%
- 7,600 to 7,799.99-1.0pt10.5%
+24 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $6.5M
- 24h Vol
KALSHIBoeing commercial airplane deliveries in 2026
- Above 56095%
- Above 580-1.0pt90%
- Above 60086%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $214.9K
- 24h Vol
- $48.6K
POLYMARKETS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 8?
- Down+32.5pt98%
- Up-32.5pt2%
- Total Vol
- $48K
- 24h Vol
- $45.3K
- Nasdaq-100 close price end of 2026?
- EQT Energy Company (EQT) Up or Down - Daily
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- S&P price on Sep 8, 2026 at 3pm EDT?
- STRC hits $100 by…
- What will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit Week of September 7 2026?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- S&P 500 Daily Up/Down
- Occidental Petroleum (OXY) Up or Down - Daily
- Ford US vehicle sales volume in 2026
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the S&P 500 decrease by over 5% in one day in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 79% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the S&P 500 decrease by over 5% in one day in 2026? resolve?
- Will the S&P 500 decrease by over 5% in one day in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will the S&P 500 decrease by over 5% in one day in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution Criteria: The market will be based on closing prices only, comparing the close to close price movement from one day to the next.