Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 76.4%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleAug 22, 24, 6:18 PM UTCJan 2, 30, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will at least 3 American cities reach a population of 1 million for the first time before 2030?
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KalshiRules
What will the population of San Francisco be in 2030?
- San Francisco’s projected population in 2030 is estimated to reach around 913,000, reflecting moderate growth compared to previous decades.
- This growth rate is influenced by demographic shifts, with expected increases in the older population (age 50+) and younger residents (under age 20), while the number of people aged 20-34 may slightly decline.
- The city’s demographic composition is also anticipated to change, with growth in the Asian and multiracial populations, while the number of Black residents is expected to decrease.
Open markets
AI
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- 2027+3.5pt33.3%
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- 24h Vol
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KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
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- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
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- November 30,-1.0pt84%
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- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 more outcomes
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KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.4pt62.4%
- ChatGPT-1.2pt23.8%
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+5 more outcomes
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- 1480+-8.0pt63%
- 1490+-8.5pt54%
- 1500+-0.5pt28%
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the population of San Francisco reach 950,000 before 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 76% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the population of San Francisco reach 950,000 before 2030? resolve?
- Will the population of San Francisco reach 950,000 before 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2030.
- How is Will the population of San Francisco reach 950,000 before 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: What will the population of San Francisco be in 2030?