What are the current odds for Will the performance jump from GPT4->GPT5 be less than the one from GPT3->GPT4??

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 79.4% as of October 26, 2026.

Will the performance jump from GPT4->GPT5 be less than the one from GPT3->GPT4?

AIOne-Off2mo

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Data quality warningSource data degraded

Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 7:45 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4

Current community forecast

Yes 79.4%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 6 hours ago

Stale

Apr 1, 23, 6:39 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 5:59 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

When GPT5 comes out, lists its capabilities according to all quantifiable metrics, and compare that to the same for GPT4 and GPT3.

If Capabilities(GPT5-GPT4) < Capabilities(GPT4-GPT3), this market resolves YES.
Otherwise, this market resolves NO.
This is regardless of whether there are diminishing returns in the cost required to get from GPT4 to GPT5.