Will the KIA-China rare earth trade have suffered a 30+ day halt by December 31, 2026?
ChinaOne-Off2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 88%
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0
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleMar 31, 26, 4:22 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 5:00 AM UTC
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PolymarketTaipei Mayor Election Winner
PolymarketRules
This market resolves YES if, by December 31, 2026, all Kachin State border crossings have been closed to rare earth trade for 30+ consecutive days due to a breakdown in the KIA-China commercial relationship.
- YES if by December 31, 2026:
- All Kachin border crossings closed to RE trade for 30+ consecutive days
- Closure caused by KIA-China diplomatic/commercial breakdown (not weather/logistics)
- No 30+ day consecutive halt has occurred by December 31, 2026
- Any closures were shorter than 30 days or caused by non-commercial factors