Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast2034 73%Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
61
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 21 hours ago
StaleNov 5, 23, 5:48 PM UTCDec 31, 40, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will the first human EXTEND artificial womb trial happen?
Manifold MarketsWill a cloned human baby be born before 2030
Manifold MarketsWill I have a baby with my decade-younger boyfriend by 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
KalshiWhen will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
KalshiHow many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
KalshiRules
Defined as a human being gestated in a synthetic environment that replicates the conditions of a biological mother's uterus and being.
- All years after the year this happens will resolve to YES, e.g. if it happens in 2029, then 2031, 2034, 2037, 2040... all resolve YES
- Disclaimers:
- This question is part of Foresight’s 2023 Vision Weekends to help spark discussion amongst participants, so the phrasing and resolution criteria may be vaguer than I would normally like for this site.
- Apologies for that.
- We thought it would still be useful to make the market public to potentially inform other discussions.
Open markets
Health & Medicine
POLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No-0.2pt97%
- Yes+0.2pt3%
- Total Vol
- $18.1M
- 24h Vol
- $23.7K
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+0.6pt4%
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $9.3K
POLYMARKETFDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
- December 31,+4.0pt65%
- September41%
- June28%
- Total Vol
- $97.8K
POLYMARKETEbola pandemic in 2026?
- No-0.1pt97%
- Yes+0.1pt3%
- Total Vol
- $759.2K
- 24h Vol
- $4K
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 400097%
- Above 6000-3.0pt59%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1M
- 24h Vol
- $3.5K
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No+1.0pt94.1%
- Yes-1.0pt5.9%
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- 24h Vol
- $1.5K
- When will the FDA approve Intellia Therapeutics' lonvo-z?
- Will 3 mg THC beverages be federally legal to sell?
- Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- Cyclosporiasis cases reported in the US in 2026?
- FDA decision: Bepirovirsen by GlaxoSmithKline (in 2026)
- What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?
- Will the FDA approve CagriSema?
- When will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- FDA decision: Saroglitazar by Zydus Therapeutics (in 2026)
- FDA decision: Ifinatamab Deruxtecan by Daiichi Sankyo (in 2026)
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will an artificial womb deliver a live human baby by ... ??
- Manifold Markets prices 2034 at 73% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will an artificial womb deliver a live human baby by ... ? resolve?
- Will an artificial womb deliver a live human baby by ... ? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2040.
- How is Will an artificial womb deliver a live human baby by ... ? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Defined as a human being gestated in a synthetic environment that replicates the conditions of a biological mother's uterus and being.