Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 74%
Forecasters
36
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleApr 3, 24, 3:20 AM UTCJan 1, 30, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will any cloned human organs, including the organs of viable cloned human infants, exist by EOY 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a baby born on the Moon before Mars?
Manifold MarketsIn what year will the first baby be born on Mars?
Manifold MarketsHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
KalshiFDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
PolymarketRules
If by December 31, 2029, any scientist, group, or institution announces the birth of a cloned human baby, and that birth is recognized as legit by the scientific community, that question will be answered with "Yes".
Open markets
Health & MedicinePOLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No-0.2pt97%
- Yes+0.2pt3%
- Total Vol
- $18.1M
- 24h Vol
- $23.7K
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+0.6pt4%
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $9.3K
POLYMARKETFDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
- December 31,+4.0pt65%
- September41%
- June28%
- Total Vol
- $97.8K
POLYMARKETEbola pandemic in 2026?
- No-0.1pt97%
- Yes+0.1pt3%
- Total Vol
- $759.2K
- 24h Vol
- $4K
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 400097%
- Above 6000-3.0pt59%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1M
- 24h Vol
- $3.5K
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No+1.0pt94.1%
- Yes-1.0pt5.9%
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- 24h Vol
- $1.5K
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- Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- Cyclosporiasis cases reported in the US in 2026?
- FDA decision: Bepirovirsen by GlaxoSmithKline (in 2026)
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- FDA decision: Saroglitazar by Zydus Therapeutics (in 2026)
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a cloned human baby be born before 2030?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 74% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will a cloned human baby be born before 2030 resolve?
- Will a cloned human baby be born before 2030 is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.
- How is Will a cloned human baby be born before 2030 settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: If by December 31, 2029, any scientist, group, or institution announces the birth of a cloned human baby, and that birth is recognized as legit by the scientific community, that question will be answered with "Yes".