Will the DC Circuit rule for Anthropic on the merits in the Pentagon supply chain case by Aug 31, 2026?
AIOne-Off
Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No (99%)
Resolved: Oct 12, 2026, 2:36 PM
Provider-verified resolution
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Data as of Oct 13, 2026, 12:28 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Probability Timeline
Yes1%
No99%
Won
Lost
Rules
On April 8, 2026, the DC Circuit denied Anthropic's emergency stay request, leaving Anthropic on the Pentagon's supply chain risk list while litigation continues.
- The court will hear the merits of the case in May 2026.
- RESOLVES YES if, on or before 23:59 UTC August 31, 2026, the DC Circuit Court of Appeals issues a ruling on the merits that grants Anthropic substantive relief — meaning the court finds the Pentagon's designation unlawful, arbitrary/capricious, retaliatory, or otherwise must be vacated.
- Partial wins (e.g., remand for further proceedings with instructions favorable to Anthropic) count as YES.
- RESOLVES NO if (a) the DC Circuit rules against Anthropic on the merits, (b) no merits decision is issued by the deadline, or (c) Anthropic withdraws or settles the case.
