Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 66.9%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingMar 6, 25, 10:37 AM UTCJan 1, 00, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
This market focuses on the extinction risk of the Beijing Loach, a newly discovered species, that is not evaluated by the IUCN yet.
- Extinction is defined as the death of the last individual, including wild and captive animals.
- The market will resolve YES, if the species is declared Extinct by the IUCN by 2100, or earlier.
- It will also resolve YES, if there is other strong evidence in 2100 that the population is extinct.
- The market will resolve NO, if there is strong evidence in 2100, that the Beijing Loach persists.
- For more information about the species, see:
